Gold after the news
Across 213 US releases since 3 Nov 2021, gold (XAUUSD) moved a median of $8.58 in the first five minutes after US jobs report (NFP), $8.95 after US inflation (CPI), $5.94 after Fed rate decision (FOMC), $2.39 after PCE inflation. Every release measured minute by minute: how far gold moved, which way, and how much of the first move survived the hour. No predictions - just what happened.
| Release | Releases | 1 min | 5 min | 15 min | 60 min | Max swing, 1 h | 5 min, last 12 | First move held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US jobs report (NFP) | 57 | $6.91 | $8.58 | $8.23 | $9.07 | $18.93 | $27.86 | 82% |
| US inflation (CPI) | 59 | $7.80 | $8.95 | $10.17 | $8.78 | $17.71 | $15.12 | 76% |
| Fed rate decision (FOMC) | 40 | $4.99 | $5.94 | $6.31 | $11.16 | $18.62 | $5.85 | 68% |
| PCE inflation | 57 | $2.19 | $2.39 | $2.42 | $4.42 | $8.51 | $4.37 | 65% |
Median absolute move in US dollars per ounce from the last price before the release; "max swing" - the larger of the highest and lowest point in the first hour; "last 12" - median 5-minute move over the 12 most recent releases: gold is far higher than in 2021, so recent dollar moves are larger; "first move held" - share of releases where gold was on the same side after 60 minutes as after 5. Minute bars (bid) from one broker feed, 3 Nov 2021 to 14 Oct 2026. Method
Next releases
| Date | Release | New York | UTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | Fed rate decision (FOMC) | 14:00 | 18:00 |
| 29 Oct 2026 | PCE inflation | 08:30 | 12:30 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | US jobs report (NFP) | 08:30 | 13:30 |
| 10 Nov 2026 | US inflation (CPI) | 08:30 | 13:30 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | PCE inflation | 08:30 | 13:30 |
| 4 Dec 2026 | US jobs report (NFP) | 08:30 | 13:30 |
Dates and times from the BLS, BEA and Federal Reserve release schedules. We publish the measured reaction here shortly after each release.
What the numbers say
US data releases are the moments when gold moves most in the shortest time. The first minute is often the widest of the day: liquidity thins out just before the release, spreads widen, and the price jumps as the number hits. The table shows how big that jump usually is and, just as important, how often it lasts - a first move that reverses within the hour is common, which is why a stop placed close to the price before a release can be hit by the spike alone.
These are reactions, not forecasts. The direction depends on how the number compares with what the market expected, which we do not publish. What the history does show is the size of the risk: how far gold can travel in 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each type of release.
How we measure
- Release dates and times come from the official schedules of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (jobs report, CPI), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (PCE) and the Federal Reserve (FOMC statements), converted to UTC.
- The price before the release is the close of the last minute before it; the move after N minutes is the close of the minute ending N minutes later. The maximum swing is measured from the same starting price over the first 60 minutes.
- Prices are minute bars (bid) from a broker feed we record; other brokers' prices differ by cents, not dollars, at these moments. Releases with no price data around them are left out, not estimated.
How XAU Meter measures · Gold market hours · Spreads around releases
Questions
How does gold react to the US jobs report (NFP)?
Over 57 releases since 5 Nov 2021, gold moved a median of $8.58 in the first 5 minutes ($27.86 over the last 12) and $9.07 after an hour, with a median first-hour swing of $18.93. The first move held for the hour in 82% of releases.
How does gold react to US CPI?
Over 59 releases since 10 Nov 2021, gold moved a median of $8.95 in the first 5 minutes ($15.12 over the last 12) and $8.78 after an hour, with a median first-hour swing of $17.71. The first move held for the hour in 76% of releases.
How much does gold move after a Fed decision?
Over 40 releases since 3 Nov 2021, gold moved a median of $5.94 in the first 5 minutes ($5.85 over the last 12) and $11.16 after an hour, with a median first-hour swing of $18.62. The first move held for the hour in 68% of releases.
When is the next big US release for gold?
Fed rate decision (FOMC) on 28 Oct 2026 at 14:00 New York time (18:00 UTC).
Page data last updated: · Measured and edited by Adrian Troy · How we measure